More On Covid19

I have updated the plot on the COVID19 page as ususal, and here is a new version of the one that tries to align the cuves with each other by shifting them in time:


This is scary in the sense that many places will probably look like Italy within days. Exponential grows is unintuitive and easily surprises systems and people that function linearly. This video does a great job illustrating the numbers behind an epidemic - highly recommended watch!

There is hope, of course, and the dire situation in Italy need not be a prediction for the rest of the world. This is because we already have an example of a large outbreak that was brought under control: What South Korea does works! They report a declining number of new cases and have tested 3.6‰ of their population, more than any other country.

Social distancing is a major tool in this effort, more on this in this Twitter thread.